The latest news released by Platts Energy Information, an energy information service company, shows that the trading volume of INE crude oil futures on the International Energy Exchange hit the highest level since its listing in early June, saying that this is a positive signal, and parCurrent crude oil trendsticipants in various financial markets are keen on Provide liquidity for INE's crude oil futures.
When Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement and restarted sanctions on Iran, he required his allies to reduce Iran's crude oil imports to zero, otherwise he would face US sanctions and would not be exempted. After the announcement, Japan, South Korea, Europe and other allies responded to the US request under pressure. Fischer Global Energy Company FGE said that the White House has not yet received a response from India or Turkey. The three countries’ crude oil imports from Iran account for about 60% of Iran’s total exports. FGE believes that as the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil, it may maintain at least some purchases.
Trump announced an interim agreement with Saudi Arabia to increase supply for the increasingly tight oil market, which surprised traders. At the same time, the survey showed that Saudi Arabia’s oil production increased by 700,000 barrels per day from May. The Russian Ministry of Energy also stated that the country’s output in June increased to 060,000 barrels per day from 0.97 million barrels per day in May.
The most important event that broke out in the crude oil market in May was a series of turmoil caused by the United States in the Middle East. After the United States, Britain and France attacked Syria, the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, and later expressed its intention to attack Iran and Venezuela. Sanctions, the huge crude oil gap started the market, but occasionally OPEC will end the production cut to fill this gap, and that is, with the outbreak of this worry, the crude oil trend began to continue to dive. After that, the Sino-US trade conflict seemed to have revived, further expanding the decline in crude oil. At the same time, the U.S. dollar has also performed strongly recently. The successive negatives have caught crude oil off guard, and the market has been hit back to the starting point before it stabilized at $70.
At present, the crude oil market is under strong short pressure. After the situation in the Middle East temporarily came to an end, its butterfly effect began to appear, because the United States only in Iran and Venezuela will create a huge Middle East crude oil supply gap. If the United States is to fill this The gap, then this will become a key step for the United States to dominate the entire oil price market in the future. OPEC will naturally not allow the United States to act like this, so OPEC must find a way to fill this gap.
These resistances are theCurrent crude oil trends 2% and 26% retracement forecast levels of a downward wave of C starting at $667/barrel. The failure of oil prices to break through the key support level of US$6/barrel indicates that the downward trend that started at US$78/barrel has ended. Although it is not clear whether this trend will continue, oil prices have undoubtedly begun to rebound towards US$667/barrel.
However, as the public began to question the theory of persistently low prices, forward crude oil prices were pushed up again-in the last month alone, the price of 5-year oil futures rose by %, compared to spot prices. The price of delivered futures rose by only 8%.
However, according to Xinhua News Agency, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will lead a US delegation to visit China from Japan to the 4th. Vice Premier Liu He will exchange views with the US delegation on China-US economic and trade issues of common concern. CNPC previously analyzed the factors behind Trump’s Sino-US trade conflict. In fact, like some of Trump’s previous practices, he hopes to do some puzzling behaviors to seek more bargaining chips. Given the opportunity of the United States, Sino-US trade issues can be resolved through negotiations. Therefore, if the US Treasury Secretary’s visit to China can further cool down the Sino-US trade turmoil, it will undoubtedly be a huge benefit for the price of crude oil. factor.
On Monday, July 2, it was reported that Trump tweeted that oil prices were too high! I have asked Saudi Arabia to increase production by 2 million barrels per day, and the King of Saudi Arabia has agreed. After the news, oil prices fell by %. Subsequently, Trump blasted OPEC on Twitter, claiming that OPEC controlled oil prices and pushed oil prices too high. Coupled with the unexpected reduction in US crude oil inventories, oil prices rose to $78 per barrel. On Thursday, EIA announced that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, gasoline inventories decreased, and international oil prices fell slightly. Saturday oil prices affected by Sino-US trade war
According to data released by the EIA on Wednesday, September 9th, as of the week of September 4th, US crude oil inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week to a three-and-a-half-year low. Gasoline inventories fell more than expected due to strong non-seasonal demand.