The U.S. dollar index continued to climb on Wednesday and once set a five-month high to 98. However, the dovishness of the minutes of the Fed’s meeting narrowed the U.S. index’s gains. The minutes of the Fed's May monetary policy meeting showed that Fed officials agreed that the excess reserve ratio may need to be adjusted slightly; the committee members agreed that the monetary policy stance remains loose, supporting strong labor market conditions and the continuous rise of inflation to 2Crude oil trading basis pdf%. The overall dovish wording caused the U.S. Index to fall rapidly from above the 94 mark, narrowing the gains made before the announcement of the minutes.
But Helmu Croft, head of commodities at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, believes that Novak wants to let the United States know that Russia can help the United States play an important role in the Vienna Conference, thereby alleviating the sanctions it faces.
The increase in international oil prices will increase US inflation expectations, which will speed up the process of the Fed’s rate hike and balance sheet reduction. At the same time, the interest rate of long-term US Treasury bonds has risen, which has narrowed the spread between them. Therefore, the trend of a small depreciation of the renminbi may be inevitable, and there will be a large amount of domestic and foreign capital outflows.
Last week, oil prices hit US$80/barrel for the first time in four years. According to crude oil analysts’ inferences, crude oil costs will continue to rise and will reach US$00/barrel in the next few months. Therefore, people from all walks of life believe that oil prices will be in 209 years. There will be a big rise, and there will be a solid foundation for rising oil prices.
If you are holding long positions, you will want the trend to keep going up-yes, you do. This is a strong desire, and it will drive your thinking to develop in more directions. In the same way, if you are holding a short position or no position, you will hope that the trend will fall.
Reports believe that rising oil prices may become a problem that advanced economies need to deal with. After all, their economic activities once benefited from the collapse of oil prices in 204. According to the report, the Air France-KLM Group pointed out that in 208, the group's fuel expenditure may increase by 500 million euros or about 100 million US dollaCrude oil trading basis pdfrs. The report believes that in the past few weeks, due to the United States' decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, concerns over oil supplies from Iran and Venezuela have pushed up oil prices.
It is reported that this week Trump may announce a detailed list of tariffs on Chinese goods, which may bring back the risk sentiment of the Sino-US trade conflict. This is a huge negative for crude oil, although President Xi’s previous speech made it so. It has temporarily stabilized, but if Trump is still reluctant, especially the bombardment mentioned above, the market should pay attention to the further escalation of the Sino-US trade conflict this week.
After Trump announced in May that the United States had withdrawn from the Iran nuclear agreement, sanctions on Iran were restarted. It also requires other countries to reduce Iranian crude oil imports, and even achieve zero imports of Iranian crude oil. In other words, the United States wants to reduce Iranian crude oil sales by 00%. Brian, the US official who led the lobbying of countries to stop importing Iranian oil
According to the Wall Street Journal, OPEC may once again lose its influence on oil prices. Analysts and traders speculated last year that OPEC would be unable to boost the sluggish crude oil market due to the massive extraction of shale oil in the United States. But as the Wall Street Journal Markets
: The United Kingdom has no agreement to leave the European Union. Brexit has continued to attract attention since its inception, and the direction of Brexit will directly affect the global economic market. In the context of increasing downward pressure on the economic market, the absence of a deal may further aggravate geopolitical risks. , Affecting the growth of demand in the global oil market.
In his view, the recent violent conflict between Palestine and Israel caused by the relocation of the US embassy in Israel has not caused a bullish mentality in the oil market. This is significantly different from the market sentiment where the US missile attack on Syria in early April caused an oil price premium of nearly US$5. Signs indicate that the main position holders are preparing to liquidate their long positions to make a profit, and are looking for a focal event that caCrude oil trading basis pdfn move oil prices into a decline.